Tax Evasion, Income Inequality and Opportunity Costs of Compliance

This paper argues that widening income inequality contributes to the propensity to evade by both reducing the probability of detection and increasing compliance opportunity costs. Lower detection probability occurs as rising inequality gradually alters the composition of income from being employment-based (i.e., matchable) to investment-based (i.e., non-matchable). Greater economic polarization also increases the financial strain on many former middle-class taxpayers, thus raising their opportunity cost of compliance. In addition, the compliance opportunity costs for wealthy taxpayers also could increase if they perceive a growing exchange inequity between their tax burdens and public sector benefits. This paper tests the hypothesis that rising income inequality contributes to tax evasion in the United States. Empirical analysis for the period 1947-2000 finds a positive correlation between the underreporting rate for wage and salary income and the top decile wage share. This finding suggests that enforcement policies aimed at reducing income tax evasion may lose some effectiveness in an environment of increasing inequality.